Orange juice processing for the 2024–25 season was moving at a good pace in Brazil’s São Paulo state at the end of September, the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) at the University of São Paulo reported.
The Pera orange has been the most processed variety so far, but the harvesting and processing pace of late fruit such as Valencia and Natal has been increasing.
Harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruit from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus indicate that 64% of oranges produced in this season are from the first blossoming. That’s higher than the last four crops, when 36% of the fruit, at most, came from the first blossoming. Consequently, the processing pace is likely to slow down earlier this year than usual. The second blossoming produces fruit that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
Huanglongbing (HLB) disease, above-average temperatures and dry weather have accelerated harvesting. One of the symptoms of HLB, also known as citrus greening, is early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruit being processed is likely to increase in October, but the amount of Pera oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024–25 crop, ending this season technically at zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), the stocked quantity of orange juice was 116,700 tons at the end of the 2023–24 crop on June 30, 2024. That was 37.7% higher than at the same time last year but was still the third lowest level since records have been kept starting in 1988–89.
Source: CEPEA
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