By Marisa L. Zansler
The 2026–27 Florida citrus season is about to begin, making it an appropriate time to assess the outlook and consumer demand for Florida’s orange, grapefruit and specialty citrus production. For much of the past decade, industry conversations about what lies ahead for Florida citrus have, understandably, centered on its production challenges. The grip of citrus greening, frequent hurricanes, high input costs, lower yields and quality, along with shrinking acreage have pushed box counts down to levels few could have imagined.
Still, Florida growers are not giving up. They have found reasons over the last two seasons to reinvest with the support of the Florida Legislature through replanting and treatment efforts.
But what about consumer demand? Many articles in the mainstream have a tendency to misinterpret the decline in the Brazilian orange forecast and the current state of futures prices to mean demand is suffering. As Florida growers struggle to maintain profitability during these times of rebuilding supply, will consumer demand still be there for them?
Many demand indicators indicate the answer is yes. Despite historically low citrus production, multiple consumer demand indicators suggest Florida citrus demand remains resilient. Consumer awareness, retail sales and brand equity all indicate demand is positioned to support future production recovery.
RESILIENT DEMAND DESPITE LOWER PRODUCTION
Even after years of steady decline in availability, consumer awareness of Florida citrus has stayed consistent. That steadiness is not accidental. It comes from decades of spending on promoting products associated with the Florida Sunshine Tree. The investment reinforces what the Florida Sunshine Tree stands for in the minds of consumers: quality, genuineness, freshness and a product cultivated by citrus-growing families.
According to NielsenIQ retail scanner data, there are encouraging signs of demand resilience. Even though higher food prices have complicated purchasing decisions for Americans in recent years, sales data for not-from-concentrate (NFC) orange juice in 2026 suggested that consumers had a strong willingness to buy 100% orange juice at a premium price. By 2026, sales data reported that prices were 9% higher for the season, offsetting the lower volume sales. Retail sales revenue increased 2% due entirely to the sales of the NFC orange juice segment of the 100% orange juice category.
BRAND EQUITY IS A STRATEGIC ASSET
Florida’s brand equity has been overlooked in recent years, partly because it cannot be measured in boxes of fruit or pounds of solids. Yet, it continues to be one of the most valuable assets in the industry.
While total production of Florida citrus is down 85% over the last decade, consumer awareness of Florida in recalling 100% orange juice advertising and promotional activity has remained remarkably consistent. From 2016 to 2026, a monthly average of 33.8% of consumers reported seeing a Florida logo in an advertisement, promotion or on packaging. The key indicator here is awareness of Florida and the brand equity. Annual awareness varied by only about six percentage points (30.6% to 36.6%), indicating relatively stable consumer recognition despite significant changes in Florida citrus production over time.
PROTECTING DEMAND DURING RECOVERY
While the establishment period for citrus trees takes years to produce a profitable crop, it is worth noting consumer awareness has taken decades to take root. Maintaining this awareness over the last two decades of limited supply has positioned Florida citrus for future demand growth when production recovers. This is why today’s investments in the current promotional efforts count. Every attempt to hold onto retailer relationships, strengthen demand, educate shoppers and reinforce the Florida brand will keep demand ready for tomorrow’s crop. Much like the rebuilding efforts of Florida’s crop, regaining lost brand equity and consumer loyalty would take decades.
The outlook for Florida citrus in the upcoming 2026–27 season must include safeguarding and adding value to consumer demand that will help the industry rebalance and move forward. It means reviewing the attributes consumers are attracted to and extends beyond mere conjectures that demand is waning. Florida’s competitive edge has not ever relied solely on the volume of citrus it grows. It leans on what shoppers think the Florida brand means.
Marisa L. Zansler is the director of the Economic and Market Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow.
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