forecast

Outlook for Brazil’s 2023–24 Orange Crop

Josh McGillBrazil, Crop Forecast

The total Brazilian orange crop for 2023–24 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kilogram boxes, a decrease of 1.1% from last season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently. The commercial area of the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 309 million boxes, a decrease of 1.55% from last …

Turkish Tangerines Rebound From Natural Disasters

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International, Mandarins

Turkish production of mandarins/tangerines is forecast at 1.86 million metric tons (MMT) for 2022–23, up slightly from the previous season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. Prior season (2021–22) mandarin production was 1.81 MMT. Mandarins were less impacted than other Turkish citrus by freezing temperatures during blossoming in March 2022, USDA FAS stated. Also, the …

South Africa Lemon/Lime Production to Shrink

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International, lemons, Limes

Fresh lemon/lime production in South Africa is forecast to shrink by 13% to 653,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently. In the prior season, the country produced a record 748,000 MT. The yield reduction this year is due to hailstorm damage in the Eastern Cape in November 2022. PLANTINGS …

Peruvian Mandarin/Tangerine Production to Dip

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently forecast Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production in 2022–23 at 550,000 metric tons (MT), slightly lower than the previous year’s 570,000 MT. The decrease can be attributed to removal of low-yield trees, a delayed season, lower harvests of early-season varieties and a warmer than expected fall season. ACREAGEPeru’s mandarin/tangerine planted area is …

production

Turkey Citrus Forecasts See Some Declines

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

Lemon and grapefruit crops will be smaller than the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) stated in a recent report on Turkey citrus. The country’s orange juice (OJ) production is forecast to stay the same. LEMONSTurkey’s 2022–23 fresh lemon production forecast is 1.32 million metric tons (MMT), 11% lower than the previous season. The …

South African

South Africa Orange Production Steady

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

Fresh orange production in South Africa is forecast at 1.63 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, compared to 1.61 MMT in 2021–22, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. The Western Cape province was affected by damage from hailstorms and strong winds, which may hamper production. Additionally, the Eastern Cape province received heavy rains, which could …

European Mandarin Production Declines

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International, Mandarins

European Union (EU) mandarin production in 2022–23 is forecast at 3 million metric tons (MMT), down almost 4% from the prior season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently reported. The shortage in EU mandarin production this year is mainly the result of anticipated decreases in Spain, EU’s major mandarin producer. Spain and Italy are respectively …

global

Final U.S. Citrus Forecast Has Several Changes

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast

The final U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) citrus forecast for the 2022–23 season, issued July 12, has several changes from the June forecast. FLORIDAFlorida’s all-orange forecast rose approximately 1% to 15.85 million boxes, up 100,000 boxes from June. The full increase is in the Valencia orange forecast, which rose to 9.7 million boxes. Florida’s all-grapefruit …

Less Citrus Production in Morocco

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

Production of all citrus varieties in Morocco will decline in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) confirmed in a recent report. The report includes an update on the area planted for each variety and the expected volume of exports. Morocco does not import fresh citrus. TANGERINES/MANDARINS Fresh tangerine/mandarin production is projected at 927,000 metric tons …

European Orange Production to Decline

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

European Union (EU) orange production is projected at nearly 5.8 million metric tons (MMT) for 2022–23, almost a 13% reduction from the previous season, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) report. Reductions are expected mainly in Spain and slightly in Italy and Portugal. SPAINOrange production in Spain is projected to decline by 22.8%, amounting …

European Union Citrus Report on Production, War Impact

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

A new report on European Union (EU) citrus by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) includes a broad overview of the continent’s industry. Production expectations, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, acreage and trade are addressed in the report. PRODUCTION REDUCTIONTotal European Union (EU) citrus production in 2022–23 is projected to total 10.4 million metric …

Mandarin Production Set to Soar in Chile

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International, Mandarins

In 2022–23, mandarin production in Chile is projected to increase by 26.5% and total 215,000 metric tons (MT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported on June 2. The increase is driven by a rise in yields and new orchards reaching production. Mandarins include clementines and tangerines. Yields this year recovered as rainfall reached more normal …

Greater Lemon Production in Chile

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International, lemons

Lemon production in Chile is expected to increase by 26.4% in 2022–23 and total 172,000 metric tons (MT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. Favorable climatic conditions and an increase in water supplies in the Coquimbo region pushed up lemon yields, and thus overall production. ACREAGEIn 2022–23, total area planted in Chile reached 8,080 hectares, …

Florida Citrus Forecast Sees Small Changes

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast

With the 2022–23 season harvest virtually completed for all varieties, the June citrus forecast for Florida had several slight changes. The Florida orange and grapefruit forecasts each climbed 1% from May, while the tangerines/tangelos forecast dropped 2%. Forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) were unchanged for Arizona, California and Texas. FLORIDA ORANGESFlorida’s all-orange …

Chilean Orange Production to Climb

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

Orange production in Chile will increase by 6.1% and total 174,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) estimated recently. Yields are up due to increased rainfall and no damage from frost. ACREAGEIn 2022–23, orange area planted in Chile totaled 6,362 hectares, unchanged from 2021–22. The total orange area planted has remained …

South Africa Citrus Estimate Higher Than Last Year

Josh McGillCrop Forecast, International

The latest estimate for the South Africa citrus crop in 2023 is 165.6 million cartons. This is 800,000 more cartons than last year, The Vanguard International Group recently reported. Vanguard stated that two commodities — lemons and mandarins — have emerged over the past few years. Lemons have witnessed a significant surge in plantings. There are approximately 8,000 hectares of …

Adjustments to the Florida Citrus Crop Forecast

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast, Florida

The May Florida citrus crop forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) saw some ups and downs. FLORIDA ORANGESThe Florida 2022–23 all-orange forecast declined 3%, from 16.1 million boxes in the April forecast to 15.65 million boxes in May. If the forecast is realized, this will be 62% less orange production than last season. …

Brazil’s Initial Orange Forecast for 2023–24

Tacy CalliesBrazil, Crop Forecast

The 2023–2024 initial orange forecast for Brazil’s citrus belt is 309.34 million boxes. The forecast was announced on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The projected volume is 1.55% less than the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. Fundecitrus reported that weather conditions are positive for the 2023–24 crop with rains being 50% above the historical average. However, …

global

Changes to U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) released its latest citrus crop forecast on April 11. Florida’s grapefruit crop forecast for 2022–23 rose 6%. Projected production for the state’s other citrus varieties was unchanged. FLORIDA GRAPEFRUITThe all-grapefruit forecast for Florida is now 1.7 million boxes, up from 1.6 million boxes in March. Florida’s red grapefruit forecast …

Brazil’s Final Orange Forecast for 2022–23

Josh McGillBrazil, Crop Forecast

The final 2022–23 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 314.21 million 90-pound boxes. While the crop declined 0.6% from the February forecast, it is much larger than the country’s 2021–22 crop. The Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties declined by 1.1% since February to 105.01 million boxes, and the Natal variety declined …